This theme will model and evaluate the pathways to be followed to achieve economic growth and food and nutrition security in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia, through agriculture development that is climate-smart and resilient.
The models will incorporate the full range of agricultural and land use dynamics in each country, helping to inform policy development and further research agendas, using decision support tools that combine climate impacts and land use modelling tools.
The results from the evaluation will be disseminated through workshops that bring together public policy makers, NGOs, funders, agronomists, and meteorological services.
We will apply five existing agri-ecological models to Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. This will determine which pathways of regional land use, agricultural technology development and changes in diets – developed in our Policy Design and Implementation Theme – can help deliver the Sustainable Development Goals and limit the rise in global temperatures for each country.
By combining the models, we will enable evaluation of the trade-offs and opportunities associated with the scenarios developed in our Farming Systems theme. Through the integrated models we will quantify greenhouse gas mitigation, crop yields, water use, biodiversity impacts, soil fertility and water and air quality. Using trade and land use data, we will assess the amount of food likely to be available in the future under these different scenarios and how this will impact on diet and nutrition,
Bringing together all these factors will enable us to predict the impact of current activities. Using current trends (crop management, climate change, land and water availability, emissions trajectory) we will forecast agricultural development and its impact (yield and nutrition, requirement for land, water, GHG emissions, ecosystem services). But we will also map the pathways working back from the desired development objectives in 2050 to today, to highlight the technical routes by which these outcomes can be achieved.